OK, so thats a bold statement since no figures have officially been released, but I think its pretty accurate.

Let me run through the numbers, noting that all these facts (apart from just a few sensible extrapolations) are based on the Hollywoodreporter.com sales charts from the last few weeks or from official studio press releases

Official esimates pegged 40 year old virgin at 3.7 million units for its first week, placing it 35th for the year (after that first week). The week before Fantastic Four topped the charts and placed 34th for the year in its first week. So lets assume Fantastic Four sold 3.8 million units (fairly reasonable I think). Now, in that same week, Dukes of Hazard was 2nd with 53.5% of the sales of Fantatic 4, so thats around (3.8*0.535) 2.0 million units sold. This was enough to finish 75th for the year. With me so far?

OK, so onto Serenity's first week. Four Brothers topped the chart and placed 68th for the year -slightly better than Dukes of Hazard - so lets say 2.2 milion copies (another reasonable extrapolation). And finally Serenity had 55.8% of the sales of Four Brothers which is (2.2*0.558) 1.2 million units! Voila.

Overall, I think that is pretty reasonable, especially since this week, we were told that American Pie sold 1 million units which is apparently what they expect for a $30-40 million BO film. So presumably Serenity is selling nearly twice as well as one would expect from its BO results.

what about this?:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/home_...video/index.jsp

it says dvd sales of serenity have fallen to 6th spot... will the ship hold together?

the only consolation i can think of is that there are no gorram penguins in sight :P

In about 2 or 3 weeks I should be able to provide actual sales figures for the first two weeks. Which isn't supposed to be possible, but I haves me a plan.

Wow. Just...wow.

Buh - nobody will confirm them, but due to a funny set of events and the way the DVD chart data is released it'll be possible to see the number of sets sold.

lol, you changed my subject heading. :lol: have you no faith in the NUMB3RS! :wink:



You've interested me here though. Will you be doing it the same sort of way I did (since we know Band Camp sold 1 milllion units this week), or will you be using some of your famous insider knowledge. :D

Where's the 55.8% coming from?

"Cap'n's got a plan."

"Well, that's good then?"

"Possibly you're not recalling some of his previous plans."

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/chart..._video/dvds.jsp

Look at the Index column on the right. The index is the percentage sales compared to the #1 title. Here we see 55.8% of the amount Four Brothers sold.

My guestimates actually roughly tie into stfletchs... I think it's about 1 million copies first week. 2nd week is unknown at the moment, but we'll be able to tell you exactly the number sold thanks to Universal releasing "American Pie: Band Camps" figures the week.

So far, I guestimate Serenity has done just over $10m on DVDs at retail first week, and $3.53m on DVD rental first week.

I *guess* (because it is purely a guess at this stage) the 2nd week figures will show it earning enough at rental and rental to have earned back it's production budget, including the theatres take.

With international DVD sales still to come, combined with TV deals and any other licensing money (role play, Tshirts, action figures, comics, books, pay per view, planes, hotels), it should cover it's full costs this year.

It's gotta do way better than just cover it's cost to get a sequel, tho, right?

How about the Firefly DVD sales? I expect they are doing well, too.

Where you got the data of retail, i find only the data of rental and i am frustated that Serenity bring only few money compare to the result of some bad movies.

Please clear me up.

Well, yeah. If they make their money back, however, they might explore a lower budget Direct to DVD or Mini-Series option.



Fox get all the money for Firefly DVD sales, unfortunately.

Don't forget that the DVD hasn't yet been released worldwide yet. From what I can tell there is a reasonably strong following here in the UK, and the DVD won't be released until Feb 27th. Oh, and then there's the Aussie edition, which people seem interested in because it comes in a tin (?!), which should help.

Now - I know the UK ain't that big compared to the US, but we might make a dent in that figure :) I saw a post on a forum somewhere suggesting that they were only about $700,000 away from breaking even, and that that was more than many manage.

I reckon that even if it's a straight-to-DVD release, many of the cast and crew would come back for it, judging by the way that they talk about the series.

That's where Fox blew it. Even if the tv ratings never got any higher, had they not cancelled the show, they could be cashing in on season 2 and season 3 DVDs of Firefly right now.

20th Century Fox get the DVD sales money - FOX Broadcasting Corp doesn't (the TV people). Basically, FOX Broadcasting Corp don't worry about the DVD factor *at all* because those responsible for that business don't have anything to do with DVD.

Well, it sucks that Fox is going the reap the benefits in spite of their bad decisions.

But still I would think if a lot of Firefly DVDs sell, it's a good indicator of the growing audience hungry for more of these characters; one hopefully not lost on those that should be paying attention.

are there any royalties towards the cast of firefly/serenity and joss himself from the dvd sales of the tv series and dvd?

I would hope so!!!! It would be a travesty if that was the case.
Prakash

Thanks for the link and thanks for lifting a heavy stone from my heart :) -The Firefly DVD money going to the "good" Fox, not to the bad one :)

The Aussie version has a second disc that comes loaded with extra content, and certain retailers have certain gifts that they're giving to people who buy the DVD (one place is giving away a shiny tin, another has a slipcase, another has a Serenity mousemat).
And don't forget that there's a very strong Browncoat movement down here: Australia had more Serenity ticket sales per theatres screening (or something similar) than any other country, including the US.

Yay! I love Australia. :P

After several hours last night I have come up with the a range of sales figures for the first week of Serenity.
For the week of December 20-25th Serenity sales are between 840,000 and 1.6 million units. I realize this is a rather large range :lol: and the minimum number is quite a low ball figure as compared to what the minimum probably is. My work is as follows.

reference:
-Fantastic four week of Dec. 6th to 12th had YTD high of 34. The following week, 40-year old virgin places with 35 YTD, so conservative sales estimate for Fantastic Four first week is 3.7 million
-40YOV sells 3.7 million =http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051220/latu052.html?.v=38
-Hollywood reporter charts for Dec. 6-12, 13-19, and 20-25

December 13th to 19th
Rank/Title/Sales Index/(approx. sales totals)/Rank YTD
1 The 40-Year-Old Virgin 100.0.... 3,700,000 -- 35
2 Fantastic Four 39.5............. 1,461,500 -- 23
3 The Polar Express 29.3.......... 1,084,100
4 Madagascar 28.0................. 1,036,000
5 Mr. & Mrs. Smith 24.6........... 910,200
6 The Dukes of Hazzard 24.3....... 899,100
7 March of the Penguins 23.7...... 876,900
8 Cinderella Man 21.5............. 795,500
9 The Island 21.5................. 795,500
10 Star Wars: Episode III 17.3.... 640,100
Fantastic Four total to date = 5,161,500 because sales reported as 3.7 mil first week and 2nd week total determined because 1st week numbers for 40YOV were provided. 3,700,000 * 395 = 1,461,500. 3.7 mil + 1,461,500 = 5,161,500.

Dec 20th - 24th
Rank/Title/Sales Index/Rank YTD
1 Four Brothers............. 100.0 -- 68
2 The 40-Year-Old Virgin.... 97.2 -- 21
3 The Polar Express......... 56.0
4 Serenity.................. 55.8 -- 100+
5 Madagascar................ 54.2
6 Brothers Grim............. 51.2
7 March of the Penguins..... 49.7
8 Fantastic Four............ 46.4 -- 20
9 Must Love Dogs............ 45.9
10 Mr. and Mrs. Smith....... 43.9

*6,496,412.9 > 40 year old virgin total sales > 5,161,500
-*1 -FF total sales as of last week + relative sales of this week > 40YOV sales last week + relative sales of this week and x = sales of Four Brothers
-*2- 5,161,500(3.7 mil reported for first week + extrapolated data based on 40YOV reported sales) + .464x > 3,700,00(total reported for first week sales) + .972x
-*3- 1,461,500 > .508x
-*4- 2,876,968.5 > x
-*5- Therefore 40YOV total sales < (3,700,000 + .972(2,876,968.5) = 6,496,412.9)
-*6- and therefore 40YOV total sales > because FF was ranked 23 YTD at a dvd total of 5,161,500.

**2,876,968.5 > Four Brothers total sales > 1,503,600.8
-**1- 40YOV sales from last week + relative sales this week > 40YOV minimum possible total sales and x = sales of Four Brothers
-**2- 3,700,000 + .972x > 5,161,500
-**3- .972x > 1,461,500
-**4- x > 1,503,600.8
-**5- Therefore FB total sales > 1,503,600.8
-**6- and therefore FB total sales < 2,876,968.5 because of -*4-

***1,605,384.4 > Serenity sales > 839,009.25
-***1- MAX possible FB sales * Serenity sales index > Serenity sales
-***2- 2,876,968.5 * .558 > Serenity Sales
-***3- Therefore 1,605,384.4 > Serenity Sales
-***4- MIN possible FB sales * Serenity sales index < Serenity sales
-***5- 1,503,600.8 * .558 < Serenity Sales
-***6- and therefore 839,009.25 < Serenity Sales

Thanks Gossi for the work and info

Ok I'm having not a small difficulty parsing that big post with all the numbers. Is there like a shorthand version? Heh.

I second that. Props to whomever invested the effort.....but we gotta have it in captain dummy speak man.

Ok, I'll give it a shot :lol:, please don't claim this work as your own if you repost it in other locations.

Abbreviations:
HR = Hollywood Reporter
FF = Fantastic Four
FB = Four Brothers
40YOV = 40 Year Old Virgin
MAX = Maximum
MIN = Minimum

Facts:
-According to HR, FF sold enough copies its first week to be ranked #34 best seller of the year
-The following week, the first week of 40YOV's release, the 40YOV was reported to have sold 3.7 million and was ranked the #35 best seller of the year
-Therefore FF sold at least 3.7 million units its first week, to avoid speculation, we will say FF sold 3.7 million units its first week.
-Using the relative sales index of the HW charts and the 3.7 million units sold press release of the 40YOV, we can figure out the units sold for the top 10 on the HR chart during the week of December 13th to 19th.

December 13th to 19th:
Rank/Title/....Sales Index/(approx. sales totals)/Rank YTD
1 The 40-Year-Old Virgin ...100.0.... 3,700,000 -- 35
2 Fantastic Four ................39.5..... 1,461,500 -- 23
3 The Polar Express ..........29.3...... 1,084,100
4 Madagascar ...................28.0...... 1,036,000
5 Mr. & Mrs. Smith ............24.6..........910,200
6 The Dukes of Hazzard ....24.3......... 899,100
7 March of the Penguins ....23.7......... 876,900
8 Cinderella Man ...............21.5......... 795,500
9 The Island .....................21.5......... 795,500
10 Star Wars: Episode III ..17.3......... 640,100

-We then calculate the total sales for FF up the 2nd week by adding the 3.7 mil estimate from the first week, to the 1,461,500 extrapolated data from the 2nd week. 3.7 mil + 3.7 mil (.395) = 5,161,500.
-This brings us to the week of Serenity's release.

Dec 20th - 25th
Rank/Title/............../Sales Index/Rank YTD
1 Four Brothers................ 100.0 -- 68
2 The 40-Year-Old Virgin.... 97.2 -- 21
3 The Polar Express........... 56.0
4 Serenity......................... 55.8 -- 100+
5 Madagascar.................... 54.2
6 Brothers Grim................. 51.2
7 March of the Penguins...... 49.7
8 Fantastic Four................. 46.4 -- 20
9 Must Love Dogs.............. 45.9
10 Mr. and Mrs. Smith........ 43.9

-Unfortunately, there were no press releases for Four Brothers numbers so we are going to have to do some ugly algebra to get approximate sales for Four Brothers, which would then give us the serenity first week numbers.
-One fact that is in our favor is that sales rank for the year for 40YOV is #21 and and the year rank for FF is #20, very close. Therefore, if we add the total sales for FF as of Dec. 19th to FF sales from Dec. 20th to 25th this total would be slightly larger than the total sales for 40YOV as of Dec. 19th added to the 40YOV sales from Dec. 20th to 25th.
-Follow me here, the relative sales index for FF is 46.4% and 97.2% for the 40YOV and taking the information in the above entry we end up with an equation:
Clean equation
5,161,500 + .464x > 3,700,00 + .972x
Same equation with elements labeled
5,161,500(FF total sales from 1st two weeks) + .464x(FF sales for the third week) > 3,700,00(40YOV total sales from 1st week) + .972x(40YOV sales for the 2nd week)
-Solving for X yields the MAX possible sales for FB in its first week:
5,161,500 + .464x > 3,700,00 + .972x
-3,700,000............-3,700,000
1,461,500 + .464x > .972x
-.464x...................-.464x
1,461,500 > .508x
/.508......../.508
2,876,968.5 > x

-Therefore, based on historical data, FB could not have sold more than 2,876,968.5 units its first week, so the MAX sales for FB is 2,876,968.5
-Now that we have the MAX sales for FB, we can figure out the MAX totals sales for 40YOV as of its 2nd week of release.
-We take the 40YOV half of the above equation and plug in the numbers:
MAX 40YOV total sales = 3,700,000 + .972(2,876,968.5) = 6,496,413.4 MAX units
-To figure out the MIN total sales for 40YOV as of its 2nd week of release, we will look at the YTD rank. The previous week, FF was ranked #23 with total sales of 5,161,500. This week, the 40YOV is ranked #21 so the total sales as of the 2nd week of release must be greater than 5,161,500. So the MIN total sales for 40YOV as of its 2nd week of release is 5,161,500.
To Summarize 6,496,413.4 units > 40YOV sales as of 2nd week > 5,161,500 units

-Now onto Four Brothers :lol:, as you can see, at the top of the previous paragraph we figured out the MAX possible sales for FB in its 1st week of release, 2,876,968.5.
-To figure out the MIN possible sales for FB in its 1st week of release we will use another ugly algebra equation. This equation is designed to once again solve for X which is the actual total for FB sales: 40YOV unit sales as of Dec. 19th added to the 40YOV sales from Dec. 20th to 25th is greater than the MIN total sales for 40YOV as of its 2nd week of release.
Clean Equation
3,700,00 + .972x > 5,161,500
Same equation with elements labeled
3,700,00(40YOV total sales from 1st week) + .972x(40YOV sales for the 2nd week) > 5,161,500(MIN total sales for 40YOV as of its 2nd week)
-Solving for X yields the MIN possible sales for FB in its first week:
3,700,00 + .972x > 5,161,500
-3,700,000...........-3,700,000
.972x > 1,461,500
/.972..../.972
x > 1,503,600.8

-So the MIN possible sales for FB in its first week is 1,503,600.8 units.
To Summarize 2,876,968.5 units > FB sales the 1st week > 1,503,600.8 units

-Ok folks, we're in the home stretch, time to figure out Serenity sales. We do this by plugging the MAX and MIN totals for Four Brothers into a simple equation derived from the Serenity sales Index for this week:
MIN Serenity sales = MIN possible FB sales * Serenity sales index
MIN Serenity Sales = 1,503,600.8 * .558 = 839,008.8
MAX Serenity sales = MAX possible FB sales * Serenity sales index
MAX Serenity sales = 2,876,968.5 * .558 = 1,605,348.1
To Summarize 1,605,348 units > Serenity sales the 1st week > 839,008.8 units

So Serenity sold between 839,009 and 1,605,348 units for the week of December 20-25th.

Update:


So with the revised MIN, Serenity sold between 1,104,840 and 1,605,348 units for the week of December 20-25th.

If you reads straight through that it should make a lot more sense than the previous post, let me know if I made any glaring math errors, I did the original number crunching and this written summary very late at night :shock:

Fortunately, figuring out Serenity sales for the 2nd week will be a cakewalk since Universal released a press release stating that American Pie: Band Camp sold 1 million copies its first week. That is, as soon as the Hollywood Reporter gets off its arse and updates the chart for that week :x .

Wow, you did even more number cruching than me. However, I feel we can make a more constrained estimate for the number of units that Four Brothers sold.

In the week that Fantastic Four was top, Dukes of Hazzard was 2nd in its first week, and was 75th for the year, selling 53.5% of Fantastic Four.

0.535*3.7mil = 1.98mil fo DoH.

Now Four Brothers was 68th for the year in its first week and so must have sold at least 1.98mil units (probably a bit more). But being conservative and without resorting to speculation, we have for Serenity

0.558*1.98mil = 1.10mil for Serenity minimum

In my original post on this thread, I estimated 1.2mil for Serenity because I extrapolated sales of FF and FB as 3.8mil and 2.2mil respectively. But even 1.1mil is a decent number - maybe not sequel generating - but pretty good never-the-less.

[quote=stfletch]But even 1.1mil is a decent number - maybe not sequel generating - but pretty good never-the-less.[/quote]

It's been on sale less than a month. It was released during a time when a lot of people might not have bought it (lack of funds, putting it on wishlists instead of purchasing). Surely we have more time to keep sales consistent before they write us off! If the drop off rate of an average dvd is something like 75% of first week's purchase, and we keep it MUCH higher than that, that should speak to something too.

That's the shorthand version?!

My brain hurts and my mind is boggled.

Yes, I realize the minimum number is a deal lower than it probably is in reality, but I tried to give a number range which uses as little speculation as possible, mainly so trolls can't poke any holes in the math, the MIN represents the worse case numbers and the MAX represents the best case numbers.